Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 15.797789 18.007237 20.376232 23.100725 26.142887 29.430489 33.247414
2025-08-03 12.240194 15.197730 18.607538 22.811275 27.834890 33.625223 40.782761
2025-08-10 10.497389 13.772283 17.727149 22.820965 29.170156 36.782711 46.555926
2025-08-17 9.237385 12.734311 17.135703 23.028001 30.647815 40.100828 52.637375
2025-08-24 8.175200 11.775435 16.475036 22.982343 31.669560 42.766517 57.895353
2025-08-31 7.253570 10.884830 15.788093 22.791567 32.416903 45.042397 62.688515
2025-09-07 6.593294 10.272143 15.395177 22.920892 33.537233 47.795353 68.167065
2025-09-14 6.185808 9.971381 15.392057 23.558325 35.349397 51.520249 75.077966
2025-09-21 5.586693 9.323142 14.826585 23.330419 35.897610 53.495072 79.628004
2025-09-28 4.863088 8.412020 13.793476 22.327424 35.240786 53.707272 81.665628
2025-10-05 4.630380 8.249782 13.870564 22.974623 37.017139 57.441735 88.847855
2025-10-12 4.376358 8.027161 13.830693 23.426478 38.504799 60.797563 95.590728
2025-10-19 4.020007 7.609376 13.460839 23.352125 39.205730 63.055374 100.869589
2025-10-26 3.658506 7.149532 12.987157 23.076233 39.569497 64.812851 105.465122
2025-11-02 3.387987 6.822450 12.703778 23.080347 40.356822 67.222468 111.110585
2025-11-09 3.178978 6.586616 12.554894 23.291449 41.476305 70.176808 117.689817
2025-11-16 2.947163 6.286031 12.268887 23.244640 42.157231 72.451868 123.272510
2025-11-23 2.714721 5.961876 11.915126 23.052175 42.573339 74.304342 128.233782
2025-11-30 2.549757 5.753799 11.753909 23.182725 43.531783 77.054440 134.710364
2025-12-07 2.466998 5.702923 11.877462 23.826619 45.396586 81.348784 143.827133
2025-12-14 2.277950 5.415884 11.535166 23.596405 45.715647 83.081173 148.788915
2025-12-21 2.012582 4.941756 10.797805 22.583272 44.587009 82.323694 149.572735
2025-12-28 1.958114 4.918266 10.940250 23.237020 46.482324 86.767416 159.219460